08/20/2008 - Phoenix, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Adam Dunn hit a two-run homer in his home debut and Conor Jackson chipped in two RBI, as Arizona held off San Diego for a 7-6 victory, in the opener of a three-game set.
Chris Snyder, Chris Burke and Mark Reynolds had an RBI each and Augie Ojeda had a pair of hits and as many runs scored for the D'Backs, who broke a tie atop the NL West and moved ahead of Los Angeles by one game. The Dodgers lost, 8-3, to Colorado on Tuesday. It was Arizona's fourth win in the last five games.
Doug Davis (5-7) was effective over six innings, surrendering two runs on seven hits while walking two and fanning six to get the win. Davis was winless over his previous three outings.
Adrian Gonzalez was 4-for-5 with two RBI and two runs scored while Chase Headley had two hits with an RBI and a run scored for San Diego, which has dropped five of its last seven games.
Josh Banks (3-6) struggled with his command from the outset in allowing six runs on four hits, while walking a season-high seven with three strikeouts in four frames.
The Padres, trailing by four runs, made a game of it in the ninth off closer Brandon Lyon. Edgar Gonzalez led off with a double, Brian Giles walked two batters later and Kevin Kouzmanoff took a single to right to load the bases with one away. Adrian Gonzalez laced a two-run single to center and Headley stroked an RBI single to right, chasing Lyon from a 7-6 game.
Tony Pena came on with runners on the corners, and got Nick Hundley to hit the ball back to the mound. Adrian Gonzalez was on third and broke for home, but was tagged out after getting caught in a rundown between third and home for the second out. Headley moved to third on the play, but Luis Rodriguez stranded him with a fly out to center, handing Pena his second save of the season.
Arizona took a commanding 4-0 lead in the first off Banks. Ojeda and Chris Young started with walks before Jackson plated a run with an infield single. Dunn walked to load the bases for Reynolds, who lofted a sacrifice fly to right. Jackson and Dunn both advanced on an errant throw from right fielder Giles before Banks issued an intentional free pass to Chad Tracy to reload the bases. Snyder lined an RBI single to left and Burke capped the scoring with another sacrifice fly.
San Diego shaved two runs off its deficit in the second. Adrian Gonzalez and Headley started the inning with back-to-back singles and Hundley walked to load the bases. Tadahito Iguchi came through with an RBI single through the left side and Sean Kazmar followed with a sacrifice fly to right.
The D'Backs extended their lead in the fourth when Dunn clubbed his 33rd home run of the season, a two-run shot to right.
The two teams traded runs in the eighth. Pinch-hitter Jody Gerut hit an RBI single back through the middle off Jon Rauch in the top half, while Jackson plated a run with a single to center off Brian Falkenborg.
Game Notes
Arizona leads the season series 8-5 and won 10 of 18 matchups from the Padres last season...The Padres made it official Tuesday, sending veteran pitcher Greg Maddux and cash considerations to the Los Angeles Dodgers for two minor leaguers to be named later or cash considerations...Wednesday's scheduled starters are Jake Peavy (9-8) for San Diego and Dan Haren (13-6) for Arizona...The Padres activated pitcher Brett Tomko off the 15-day disabled list Tuesday. He pitched 1 2/3 scoreless innings in relief of Banks.
<< This Week in Auto Racing August 20 - 24
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - NASCAR roars into "Thunder Valley" as all
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Speedway in Tennessee this week. The IndyCar Series heads to Northern
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<< Bartoli, Mauresmo, Szavay post wins in New Haven
New Haven, CT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Third-seeded Frenchwoman Marion Bartoli,
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France were all winners Tuesday at the $600,000 Pilot Pen Tennis event, a
final h
<< Padres activate Tomko from DL
Phoenix, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Diego Padres activated pitcher
Brett Tomko off the 15-day disabled list Tuesday.
Tomko had been sidelined with a strained right elbow since July 1.
The journeyman right-hander made two
<< Report: Louisville QB Simms suspended four games
Louisville, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Louisville has reportedly suspended backup
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The Louisville Courier
Cards' Isringhausen shut down with elbow tendonitis >>
St. Louis, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Jason
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revealed tendonitis in his right elbow and a partial tendon tear in his flexor
group.
Red Wings re-sign Downey >>
Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Red Wings re-signed forward Aaron
Downey to a one-year, two-way undisclosed contract Wednesday.
Downey signed with Detroit last season following a training camp tryout and
appeared in 56 game
Royals, Indians resume three-game series in Cleveland >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Lefty Zach Jackson makes his second appearance in a
Cleveland uniform tonight when the Indians take on the visiting Kansas City
Royals in the second of three midweek games at Progressive Field.
Jackson, a supplemental 2004
Lilly goes for Cubs against Reds >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Lefty Ted Lilly can reverse the result of his lone loss in
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A 32-year-old Californian, Lilly is 5-
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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