Line of Scrimmage: Saints, Patriots, Our Picks for Miami

Football Betting Lines

01/06/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Discussion question: which is more overrated in the NFL, the No. 1 seed or the first-round bye? It's a trick question, of course, since history suggests that both are mighty overrated.

The top seed, which teams seem to work their fingers to the bone trying to secure every year, has been a death sentence over the last half-decade. Feel free to check my math, but of the last 10 No. 1 seeds in the AFC and NFC, a robust 0.0 percent have found themselves on a hastily assembled platform in early February, standing next to the commissioner and hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.

Four of the last six top seeds - the 2008 Titans and Giants, 2007 Cowboys, and 2006 Chargers - all failed to win as much as a playoff game. Last season's Super Bowl was completely top-seed free (the Steelers were a No. 2 and the Cardinals a No. 4), and the previous four Super Sunday runners-up all came off the No. 1 line.

Amazingly, the 2003 Patriots are the only Super Bowl winner this decade to earn their conference's No. 1 seed entering the tournament. Sorry to all my friends in Indianapolis and New Orleans, but these are facts.

Two No. 1s haven't met for the Super Bowl title since way back in 1993, when the Cowboys beat the Bills, there were only 28 NFL teams, no salary cap, and a gallon of gas cost a nickel.

If history is any indication, your Super Bowl XLIV winner will be playing this weekend, and may even be playing on the road. Though Pittsburgh used the bye to its advantage last season, the fifth-seeded Giants of 2007, third-seeded Colts of 2006, and sixth-seeded Steelers of 2005 all suffered the indignity of playing on Wild Card Weekend and ended up winning the ultimate prize.

Two teams with first-round byes haven't played each other in the Super Bowl since the AFC second-seed Patriots beat the NFC top-seed Eagles in the one they called XXXIX, following the 2004 season.

Three of the four teams with byes (Giants, Titans, Panthers) were dropped in their first playoff game last season. At least one bye-rested team has been one-and-done in the last four postseasons.

So does that mean we should be gearing up for a Jets/Packers Super Bowl? Well, not quite, but we do think the top-seeded Saints will become the fifth NFC team in the last eight years to make its Super Bowl debut (Tampa Bay, Seattle, Carolina, Arizona) and that its opponent - the Patriots - will join the Steelers, Colts, and Giants on the list of well-regarded NFL franchises that make "the Bowl" after not necessarily setting the world on fire in the regular season.

How did we reach those conclusions? See below, as The Sportsbook Betting Lines offers its postseason predictions leading up to the big game:

Wild Card Round:

Jets over Bengals

The Bengals seem to be treating last week's 37-0 thrashing at the hands of the Jets as no big deal, since Cincinnati clearly had very little urgency or intent to win that game. And that's probably the only approach they can take, but we have a feeling the Bengals are going to be stunned to learn that even when they are trying, they're not as good as the Jets. Cincinnati is 3-4 in its last seven games, with the wins coming over the Browns, Lions, and Chiefs, and is still hanging its hat on that 4-0 record against the Ravens and Steelers, two overrated teams that didn't have a high-quality win between them after October. The Bengals are average offensively on their best day, and don't figure to move the ball much on a Jets defense that looks like the real deal. Cincinnati is also going to have problems containing the Jets' top-ranked running game with Rey Maualuga and Pat Sims both out due to injury.

Cowboys over Eagles

The Eagles pretty much quit once it became apparent they weren't likely to pull off a comeback against the Cowboys last week, cutting their losses and resigning themselves to winning Saturday night's rematch. There's no way the Cowboys are really 24 points better than the Eagles, but Dallas does look like it finally has its act together defensively, while Philadelphia is suffering from a crisis of confidence offensively and would have trouble tackling Wade Phillips himself in the open field at this stage. Tony Romo and company won't make this one look nearly as easy as they did last week, but will avoid another unseemly first-round exit with a three-point win here.

Patriots over Ravens

The blowout of the wild card round will begin at Gillette Stadium around 1pm on Sunday afternoon. These teams played a close contest in New England back on Oct. 4th, and if Mark Clayton doesn't drop a ball my 3-year-old would have caught inside the 10-yard line in the waning moments, maybe the Ravens even win the game. But October 4th was a long time ago, before Tom Brady got his feet underneath him in the wake of his knee injury, and before the Ravens were passing off guys like Chris Carr and Frank Walker as starting NFL cornerbacks. Even without Wes Welker, the Patriots will throw the ball at will against a Baltimore team that doesn't cover or rush the passer well, and the road-soft Ravens will go relatively quietly against a New England team that has never lost a home playoff during the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick era.

Cardinals over Packers

The Cardinals are a difficult team to figure out because their motivation seems to have peaks and valleys from week to week, and you never quite know which Arizona team is going to show up. But these are the playoffs, where the Cardinals memorably strapped it up for a solid month against the NFL's best last season, Also, if recent reports are accurate that Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt wants badly to stick it to a Packers team that has tried to run up the score in two meaningless contests this season, Arizona should have an even sharper edge about them. Green Bay is the hottest team in the NFC entering these playoffs, but will not play their best football here against a Cardinals team that has a slight talent advantage.

Divisional Playoff Round:

Colts over Jets

Once this game arrives, the Colts will have gone over a month since playing a game with any meaning at all, their win over the Broncos on Dec. 13th. Thus, Jim Caldwell and Peyton Manning will endure a week's worth of questions about their ability to avoid coming out flat, and Indianapolis should be annoyed enough by those queries to take it to the Jets. The Bengals may not have the ability to expose Mark Sanchez this week, but the Colts, with a terrific pass rush and lots of able bodies flying around the secondary, do possess that ability. Meanwhile, while Reggie Wayne might not get off Revis Island, Manning will complete 20 straight passes to Tom Santi, if he has to, in the name of getting what should be a decisive win.

Saints over Cardinals

The Saints seem to have turned back into a pumpkin since their eye-opening Monday night blowout of the Patriots on Nov. 30th, notching unimpressive wins over the Redskins and Falcons followed by less impressive losses to the Cowboys, Buccaneers, and Panthers. But we have a feeling New Orleans' showing over the last month has more to do with the natural complacency that comes with clinching your division and essentially wrapping up homefield advantage at an early stage, than the rest of the league figuring New Orleans out. Once the games count again, we have a feeling Drew Brees will go back to being clinically accurate, and that a Saints defense that stopped making plays after about Week 12 will begin to show some fire again.

Patriots over Chargers

The Chargers are a popular Super Bowl pick at the moment, a status that is part and parcel with being the NFL's hottest club. But apart from Philip Rivers, who put together an MVP-worthy performance in 2009 in tandem with the likes of Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates, we're not quite sure what is supposed to be so awesome about this team. They're 31st in the league in rushing, an imbalance that Bill Belichick seems certain to exploit, and are a middle-of-the-pack team in most NFL defensive categories, a situation that Tom Brady seems certain to exploit. Also, lest you had forgotten, Norv Turner is the coach, and I'm not sure he could motivate a thirsty man to take a drink in the Mojave Desert if there was a championship on the line.

Vikings over Cowboys

The Vikings received the kind of karma in Week 17 that had gone missing some time after the team reached 10-1, blowing out the Giants and getting the major gift of a Cowboys win over the Eagles, thus securing the No. 2 seed and a much- needed bye week. Though we lean toward the point of view that Minnesota is much closer to the team couldn't figure out the Cardinals, Panthers, or Bears in December, and less like the one that steamrolled its way to a 10-1 start, it is also hard to envision a well-rested Vikings team that went 8-0 at home this season not winning a single game in the postseason with what could be the most talented roster in football. Meanwhile, the Cowboys may get off to a quick start in this one, but caving under the pressure is this team's M.O. for a reason.

Championship Round:

Patriots over Colts

Perhaps you'll hear about that 4th-and-2 call once or twice in the build-up to this game. It is not easy to forget that the Colts won that one due in part to Bill Belichick's highly questionable decision, but what has been glossed over is the fact that New England was the better team than Indianapolis for three- plus quarters of that Nov. 15th meeting. Some will tell you that the Patriots never quite recovered from that bitter loss, going 4-3 the rest of the way including losses to two non-playoff teams (the Dolphins and Texans), while the Colts won every game they were trying to win the rest of the way. But this wouldn't be the first time that a Patriots team kept a little something in reserve for the games that really mattered, and it wouldn't be the first time that Belichick pushed all the right buttons in a playoff situation where it looked on the surface like he was fielding the inferior squad. Look for the residue of 4th-and-2 to be washed away in another Colts/Pats classic.

Saints over Vikings

It's somewhat natural to predict big things for a Vikings team with up to two future Hall of Famers in the backfield and two more Pro Bowlers split out wide, and there's little chance that New Orleans will have the ability to hold Minnesota to a low number in this one. At the same time, who on the Vikings roster is going to cover Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem, Jeremy Shockey, and/or Reggie Bush? It's hard to see how Minnesota's suspect defensive backs would win any of those matchups. The Saints, while hardly resembling an All-Pro team on defense, do have the ability to force some turnovers, and that could end up being the difference in what figures to be a high-scoring game. Look for New Orleans safety Darren Sharper to make at least one big play against his former teammate Brett Favre, and against the club that decided he was finished after last season.

Let's take a look at the week that will be in the National Football League:

NFL POWER POLL

The Sportsbook Betting Lines's updated NFL Power Poll, which ranks all 32 league teams, can be found at:

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/default.asp?c=sportsnetwork&page=nfl/misc/nfl- poll.htm

THE GAMES

I was just 8-8 in my Week 17 picks, also going 8-8 against the spread in what is arguably the most difficult week of the season in which to select games. I finished the regular season with a mark of 166-90 (.648), which was seven games better than last season, and 125-111-4 (.529) against the spread, 10 games behind my 2008 regular season showing.

N.Y. Jets (9-7) at Cincinnati (10-6), Saturday, 4:30pm (NBC) (Cincinnati -3)

Storylines: Jets and Bengals play for a second straight week, after New York scored a 37-0 win over Cincinnati to reach the playoffs last Sunday night... Bengals are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2005, and are seeking their first postseason win since beating the Houston Oilers in a 1990 AFC Wild Card game...Jets are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2006, and are seeking their first postseason win since upsetting the Chargers in a 2004 Divisional Playoff...Jets rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez makes his first playoff start...Bengals are 3-4 since starting the season 7-2, and have lost three of their last four...Cincinnati wide receiver Chad Ochoncinco (knee) expected to play despite being held without a catch against the Jets last week...Jets led the league in rushing offense (172.2 yards per game), while Bengals allowed the fewest rushes of 20 yards or longer (5)...Cincinnati has lost linebacker Rey Maualuga (ankle) and defensive tackle Pat Sims (forearm) to season-ending injuries over the past two weeks...Jets were No. 1 in NFL total defense (252.3 yards per game), scoring defense (14.8 points per game), passing defense (153.7 yards per game), touchdowns allowed (26), touchdown passes allowed (8), opponents' third-down percentage (31.5), and opponents' completion percentage (51.7) during the regular season...Jets linebacker David Harris (ankle) is questionable for Saturday.

Fast Fact: In his last two playoff games, current Jets running back and then- Chicago Bear Thomas Jones rushed for 235 yards and two touchdowns on 34 carries (6.9 yards per rush).

Prediction: Jets 21, Bengals 10. Bengals lack the offensive firepower to move the ball on the Jets, who should be able to run it enough to keep Cincinnati at arm's length.

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Philadelphia (11-5) at Dallas (11-5), Saturday, 8:00pm (NBC) (Dallas -4)

Storylines: Eagles and Cowboys play for a second straight week, after Dallas scored a 24-0 win over Philadelphia to win the NFC East title last Sunday... Cowboys looking for first-ever three-game sweep over the Eagles after defeating them in Philadelphia (20-16) and Dallas during the regular season...Cowboys are 0-2 in the playoffs with Tony Romo as starting quarterback, and 0-1 with Wade Phillips as head coach...Dallas is 0-5 in playoff games overall since beating the Vikings in a 1996 NFC Wild Card game...Eagles are 7-0 in playoff openers under head coach Andy Reid...Dallas is 0-2 when attempting to defeat a division opponent for a third time, losing to the Cardinals (1998) and Giants (2007) in the playoffs in both situations... Cowboys shut out Redskins (17-0) and Eagles in final two regular season weeks and haven't allowed a point in eight straight quarters...Philadelphia cornerback Asante Samuel tied for the league lead in interceptions (9) during the regular season...Eagles kicker David Akers tied for the NFL lead in made field goals (32)...Philadelphia's DeSean Jackson led the league in punt return average (15.2) and tied for punt return touchdowns (2) along with the Cowboys' Patrick Crayton...Cowboys nose tackle Jay Ratliff tied for the league lead in defensive fumble recoveries (4).

Fast Fact: During the three seasons in which the Cowboys and Eagles have squared off three times (1980, 1992, 1995), the home teams are 9-0 in those matchups (6-0 regular season, 3-0 playoffs).

Prediction: Eagles will not go quietly, but six days haven't changed all that much in regard to these two teams. Cowboys 20, Eagles 17.

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Baltimore (9-7) at New England (10-6), Sunday, 1:00pm (CBS) (New England -3.5)

Storylines: Patriots appear in their first playoff game since 17-14 upset loss to the Giants in Super Bowl XLII...New England is 8-0 in home playoff games during the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick era...Ravens were 1-6 against 2009 playoff teams, including six straight losses since a win at San Diego in Week 2...Brady has won 23 consecutive home games (regular season and playoffs) since a loss to the Jets on Nov. 12th, 2006...Patriots are 11-0 in home playoff games since a loss to the Houston Oilers in the 1978 postseason...Ravens are 0-5 all-time against the Patriots, including a 27-21 loss at Gillette Stadium in Week 4... Patriots will be without wide receiver Wes Welker, the NFL's leading pass receiver in 2009, who suffered a serious knee injury in last week's 34-27 loss to the Texans...New England wide receiver Randy Moss tied for the NFL lead in touchdown catches (13)...Ravens were tied for the NFL lead in rushing touchdowns (22)...Baltimore allowed a league-low 3.4 yards per rush during the regular season...Running back Laurence Maroney (knee) and cornerback Leigh Bodden (knee) both question marks for New England.

Fast Fact: The most recent (and only) opposing quarterback to win a road playoff game at New England was Dan Pastorini, who led the Oilers to a 31-14 triumph over the Patriots on Dec. 31, 1978.

Prediction: Simply a bad matchup for the Ravens, who don't have the defensive makeup to control Brady and the New England aerial attack. Patriots 31, Ravens 13.

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Green Bay (11-5) at Arizona (10-6), Sunday, 4:30pm (FOX) (Arizona -2.5)

Storylines: Packers and Cardinals play for a second straight week, after Green Bay scored a 33-7 win over Arizona last Sunday...Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers makes his first NFL start, and becomes the first Green Bay signal- caller other than Brett Favre to open a playoff game since Lynn Dickey, who defeated the Cardinals and lost to the Cowboys in 1982... Packers are 0-3 in road playoff games since beating the 49ers in the 1997 NFC Championship... Cardinals, who are making their first back-to-back postseason appearances since 1974-75, have never notched playoff victories in consecutive campaigns... Arizona wideout Anquan Boldin (knee/ankle) expected to play... Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald tied for the NFL lead in touchdown catches (13) during the regular season...Arizona lost a league-high 18 fumbles...Green Bay committed a league-low 16 turnovers but absorbed an NFL-worst 51 sacks and three safeties on the regular season... Packers cornerback Charles Woodson tied for the league lead in interceptions (9) and interception returns for touchdowns (3), and Green Bay led the league in INTs (30), takeaways (40) and turnover margin (+24)...Green Bay led the NFL in rushing defense (83.3 yards per game) and was tied for the NFL lead in rushing touchdowns allowed (5).

Fast Fact: An NFC West team has advanced to the Divisional Playoff Round in each of the past 26 years.

Prediction: Reigning NFC champs should be motivated here, and will look much different with Kurt Warner under center than they did with Matt Leinart. Cardinals 28, Packers 20.