11/22/2008 - Mar del Plata, Argentina (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In Saturday's pivotal doubles rubber, a tandem of lefthanders Feliciano Lopez and Fernando Verdasco topped a duo of Agustin Calleri and David Nalbandian in four sets to give visiting Spain a 2-1 lead over Argentina in their best-of-five Davis Cup final at Estadio Islas Malvinas.
Lopez and Verdasco dropped the first set on Day 2 before fighting back for a 5-7, 7-5, 7-6 (7-5), 6-3 decision over Calleri and Nalbandian on the indoor hardcourt here in Mar del Plata. Argentine captain Alberto Mancini removed Jose Acasuso from the doubles bout and replaced him with Nalbandian, who was a singles winner here on Friday.
Spain now needs to win just one of Sunday's two reverse singles rubbers to secure its third Davis Cup title this decade, while the Argentines need to sweep the Day-3 singles in order to secure that elusive first-ever Davis Cup championship.
On Saturday, the Spaniards dropped a tough first set against Calleri and Nalbandian, but fought back to take the second and level the rubber.
In a most interesting third set, Spain jumped out to a seemingly-commanding 5-1 lead only to see the Argentines charge all the way back to forge a 5-5 tie and ultimately force a tiebreak.
In the tiebreak, it was team Argentina that let things slip away, as Calleri- Nalbandian blew a 5-1 lead, as the Spaniards rattled off six straight points to stun the hosts and grab a two-sets-to-one lead.
The fourth and deciding set was never in doubt for Spain, as the visitors roared out to a 5-2 advantage and held on to secure the crucial second point.
Lopez and Verdasco needed 3 hours, 18 minutes to prevail, which they did with the help of six service breaks and 12 aces. The losers settled for four breaks and 10 aces.
Sunday's singles call for Spain's David Ferrer to take on 20-year-old rising Argentine star Juan Martin del Potro and Lopez to encounter the former Wimbledon runner-up and former Tennis Masters Cup champion Nalbandian. The world No. 9 del Potro, No. 11 Nalbandian and No. 12 Ferrer account for three of the top-12 players on the planet. Lopez is ranked 31st.
On Friday here, Nalbandian spanked Ferrer 6-3, 6-2, 6-3 in the opening singles rubber and Lopez then pulled Spain even with a 4-6, 7-6 (7-2), 7-6 (7-4), 6-3 stunner over del Potro.
The Spaniards, captained by Emilio Sanchez, also have Davis Cup rookie Marcel Granollers at their disposal on Sunday. Granollers joined the squad last week when world No. 1 superstar Rafael Nadal announced his withdrawal, citing a knee injury. The amazing Nadal is the reigning Wimbledon, French Open and Olympic champ.
The gritty Spaniards own a pair of Davis Cup championships, with both coming this decade -- in 2000 and 2004. Argentina was the runner-up just two years ago and also back in 1981.
Spain is 2-0 all-time versus Argentina, which is hosting for the first time ever in this series. The Spaniards prevailed at home way back in 1926 and again in 2003.
The Spaniards, who are 2-3 in their all-time Davis Cup finals and appearing in their fourth final this decade, reached this year's final by beating the 32-time and defending champion United States 4-1 in a semifinal in Madrid, while Argentina got past Russia 3-2 in Buenos Aires, with del Potro winning a fifth and deciding rubber.
The Argentines have won 13 straight Davis Cup ties as the host.
<< Canucks G Luongo leaves game vs. Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Vancouver Canucks goaltender Roberto Luongo
left Saturday's game against the Pittsburgh Penguins with an apparent left leg
injury.
With 15:06 left in the first period, Luongo made a pad save but immediately
<< Arminia Bielefeld upsets Bayer; Hoffe takes lead
Bielefeld, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Artur Wichniarek and Daniel Halfar scored
as Arminia Bielefeld knocked Bayer Leverkusen out of first place on Saturday in
the German Bundesliga with a 2-1 win at Schuco Arena.
Hoffenheim took advantage o
<< U.S. to play Brazil, Italy in Confederations Cup
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The United States men's national team was drawn
into Group B on Saturday along with reigning World Cup winners Italy, five-time
World Cup winners Brazil and African Cup of Nations winners Egypt for the 2009
FIFA
<< Bears put T Miller on IR
Lake Forest, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Bears placed offensive tackle
Fred Miller on injured reserve Saturday with a shoulder problem.
Miller appeared in six games this season for Chicago, playing mostly on
special teams. T
Toronto C O'Neal has strained left knee >>
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Toronto Raptors center Jermaine O'Neal is
listed as day-to-day with a strained left knee, the team announced on
Saturday.
O'Neal suffered the injury early in the fourth quarter of Friday's 12
Griffin's big day carries No. 12 Oklahoma past Gardner-Webb >>
Norman, OK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Blake Griffin scored 35 points and grabbed 21
rebounds, as 12th-ranked Oklahoma needed a late rally to pull out an 80-76
victory over Gardner-Webb at the Lloyd Noble Center.
Griffin also led the team w
Muntari helps Inter topple Juve >>
Milan, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sulley Muntari's goal in the 73rd minute was
enough to lift Inter Milan to a 1-0 win over Juventus at the San Siro on
Saturday.
The result moves Inter four points clear of AC Milan at the top of the
Canucks lose Luongo, but beat Penguins >>
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Daniel Sedin recorded a goal and two
assists as the Vancouver Canucks overcame the loss of goaltender Roberto
Luongo to injury to defeat the Pittsburgh Penguins, 3-1, at Mellon Arena.
Pavol De
MySportsbook.com and Kentucky Derby Offer Bonuses
The 2008 Kentucky Derby has announced a $1-million bonus for this weekend’s 134th ‘Run for the Roses’ and MySportsbook.com is doing the same.
Well, not quite $1 million, but MySportsbook.com is offering a 75% rebate for Kentucky Derby lines. Check out the exclusive horse racing bonus for all the details.
According to MySportsbook.com, the favorites for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky are: Curlin (+250); Street Sense (+500); Scat Daddy (+700); Circular Quay (+750); and Nobiz Like Shobiz (+800).
Derby organizers announced this week that there will be a $1-million bonus at the 2007 Kentucky Derby odds if the first-place horse wins by more than 6 1/2 lengths – the margin of Barbaro's victory last year. The bonus would be divided Saturday among the winning trainer, jockey, owner and a charity, with each receiving 25 percent. The designated charity is the Barbaro Memorial Fund.
''It's certainly creative, it's certainly fun and it has something for the horsemen, which we always want to embrace,'' Churchill Downs president and chief executive Robert Evans said at a news conference. ''What's really cool is it will force us to remember Barbaro.''
Meanwhile, the Derby favorite – Curlin – is going against the odds this year. It's been 125 years since Apollo won after skipping his 2-year-old season, and not since Regret in 1915 has such a lightly seasoned horse worn the blanket of red roses.
Arkansas Derby winner Curlin – unbeaten in three career races – tries to overcome both those obstacles in Saturday's 133rd Derby.
''We're not running against history,'' trainer Steve Asmussen said Monday. ''We're running against who they load up.''
Six other horses have run in the Derby without benefit of 2-year-old races and with three or fewer starts. The best any of them managed was a sixth-place finish by Showing Up last year.
Asmussen dismissed suggestions that Curlin's lack of racing experience could keep him from the winner's circle.
”He exudes confidence and he's got a great presence about him,'' the trainer said. ''I feel great about the position we're in. He's not worried about anything, why should you be?''
The Kentucky Derby is at 4:04 p.m., ET Saturday.
For complete odds on the Kentucky Derby, visit MySportsbook.com. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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