Angels get Dan Haren and a tree falls in the forest

Baseball Betting Lines

07/26/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Yawn.

That is exactly the first thought that went through my head when my I-Phone beeped on Sunday night with the news that the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim had acquired Dan Haren from the Arizona Diamondbacks for Joe Saunders and a few other guys that (trust me) you will never, ever hear from.

I don't understand this deal from either team's standpoint.

I guess if you try hard you can convince me that the Angels are attempting to keep pace with the American League West-leading Texas Rangers, who, of course, picked up stud Cliff Lee two weeks ago. But, Haren is nowhere near as good as Lee, and may not be all that much better than the one they gave up in Saunders, forgetting for a second the other extra pieces they had to give up.

In case you were wondering. Saunders is a year younger than Haren and also has two more wins than then him since the start of the 2008 season. And, by the way, does not earn $25.5 million over the next two seasons.

Saunders was viewed as an untouchable last summer and last winter when the Angels were engaging in talks with Toronto for Roy Halladay. Why did Anaheim pull the plug now? Did they covet Haren more than Halladay? I am sorry, but this move reeks of desperation from a team that is seven games back of the Rangers at the moment.

Maybe it's just me, but I am not a big Dan Haren guy. If he is that good, how come he is now going to be pitching for his fourth different organization since being drafted in 2001?

Aren't franchises supposed to build their teams around pitchers like Haren? Why is it that he is always the guy who gets dealt?

As bad as the Kansas City Royals are, how come Zack Greinke is off limits? Why do the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are heading towards their 18th straight losing season, not entertain offers for someone like Paul Maholm?

And yes, I would rather have Paul Maholm than Haren. For that matter, I would rather have Maholm than Roy Oswalt, but maybe that is why I am not in a front office at the moment.

I don't get the fascination with Oswalt either. I hate the fact that you have to convince players on a losing team to play for a winner. I hope Roy Oswalt, his no-trade clause and the $40 million coming to him all remain in Houston for the rest of his career, without a title.

We will see if Oswalt gets moved later this week.

People have said to me in the past week that in both the cases of Haren and Oswalt, it must be hard to get up every fifth day knowing you pitch for Arizona and Houston. Really? That raises more of a red flag for me. That means they have some quit in them. Cliff Lee seemed to do well in Seattle and I don't think I ever noticed Halladay struggling in Toronto.

I'm sorry, if you are moved around as often as Haren, I don't think that much of you. Minnesota dealt Johan Santana only when they had to. Cleveland dealt CC Sabathia and Lee when they had to. There was no reason for Arizona to move Haren, unless, of course, they don't think much of him either.

As little as I think of Haren, I would rather have him than Joe Saunders at the moment. But, if Arizona had already resigned itself to the fact that it had to deal him, couldn't they have found a better package than the one Anaheim gave up? Other than Saunders, the best prospect in the deal is 19 years old.

You have to think that due to his shoulder concerns, Brandon Webb re-signs in Arizona this offseason. With him, Haren, Ian Kennedy and even Edwin Jackson in the fold, that is a pretty solid rotation heading into 2011. Not to mention young offensive stars like Justin Upton, Chris Young and Mark Reynolds.

The Diamondbacks are not as far away as their record may indicate. This, though, probably isn't the only move they will make. I am guessing Jackson is the next to go.

I just don't get it. If this is the move that new general manager Jerry DiPoto is willing to start his legacy with, then good luck. And if this was a salary dump, then how long until the team sells off Justin Upton?

Bottom line, Anaheim is probably better off today than it was when the sun rose on Sunday, but in the grand scheme of things this is a move that will have little or zero impact on the American League West standings.

As far as Arizona goes, well, I guess it's back to the drawing board ... again.

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

NFL Betting Lines

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American Idol Betting Season 6 Strategies  

It's that time of year folks.  Betting on American Idol Season 9.  And we have plenty of American Idol Season 6 strategies appearing below.  With the Top 24 finalists revealed, online gambling sites will be offering betting odds on each of them, including MySportsbook.com.

No other “event” has been growing as fast as wagering on American Idol. It has turned into a huge betting event with reasonably high limits and all sorts of profit-making potential for sharp bettors. Last year, MySportsbook.com experienced unprecedented traffic as a result of the American Idol betting craze.

Every week there will be odds to win American Idol, various elimination props and contestant versus contestant match-ups at the MySportsbook.com website.

Whether a fan of America’s top-rated show or watching only because of a wife or girlfriend, here are some of basic strategies to use when betting American Idol.

Odds to Win

There are a few things to consider when looking for the right win bet. First off, remember that this bet is for the long haul. Many people make the mistake of picking the performer who sang the best the previous week. This strategy leads to an underlay situation – betting a price, which is less than what it should be.

All Idol contestants struggle at some point in the competition, so you should always look for value. In last year’s competition alone, two performers who had some of the best performances early in the series were subsequently bet down to low prices - Lisa Tucker and Ace Young. After just a few weeks, Tucker had already been eliminated, while Young quickly became a huge long shot to win America’s largest talent search.

A better strategy is to look for performers who don’t necessarily get the praise from the judges, but show flashes of the talent necessary to go the distance.

Another important thing to remember when betting any contestant to win is the demographic breakdown of the voters, the viewing public and potential future CD purchasers. Unlike sporting events, American Idol is not decided on the field of play – it’s decided by the American public under the guiding influence of the shows producers.

Understand that the great state of Alabama has a mighty edge when it comes to American Idol. 

Therefore, to be successful betting on American Idol, put any personal opinions or prejudices aside and think like the majority of the voting public. Remember that the typical voter is young, female and quite often, Southern.

If a contestant cannot appeal to this demographic, no matter how much talent he or she possesses, they’ll struggle for votes. Looks, demeanor and charisma are extremely important. And it’s no coincidence that every Idol winner so far has hailed from a Southern state.

Elimination Props

Every week MySportsbook.com anticipates offering a prop on who’ll be eliminated from the show each Wednesday night. A suggestion to handicap this is to gauge an overall feel for who’s the least popular contestant left in the competition. Generally the least popular performers have recently appeared in the bottom three and will have been the target of repeated criticism from the judges.

Last year, resources included dialidol.com and votefortheworst.com. Dialidol.com measures the volume of each contestant’s voting line. While by no means a perfect science, it does give a good indication of who is generating votes and who isn’t. Meanwhile, votefortheworst.com is a site that attempts to build support for the worst competitor to keep them in the competition for ‘entertainment’ value. The site has a proven track record of keeping performers around who most feel should have been voted off a long time ago.

Contestant vs. Contestant Match-ups

The best strategy for doing well on match-ups is to assess how close either of the contestants is to being eliminated. If neither is expected to be voted off of the show in the coming weeks, the value is almost always on the underdog. If both are expecting an imminent exit in the near future, the favorite in the match-up might offer value.

Watch for American Idol betting odds on each of the contestants shortly and good luck with these American Idol betting strategies.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com - this sportsbook accepts credit cards.