Seattle edges D.C. United with late winner

Soccer Betting Lines

07/15/2010 - Washington, D.C. (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Roger Levesque scored in the 89th minute and Kasey Keller made five saves, leading Seattle Sounders FC to a 1-0 victory over D.C. United in MLS on Thursday night at RFK Stadium.

Keller made a few great saves for his fifth shutout of the season and Levesque scored his first goal of the year to end Seattle's four-game winless skid.

Seattle (5-8-4) won for just the second time in its last eight matches and for just the second time on the road this season.

D.C. United (3-10-3) became the first team to lose 10 matches in MLS this year and is winless in four straight.

Both clubs created tons of scoring chances, as Fredy Montero and Steve Zakuani both missed wide on early chances and United 17-year-old Andy Najar was denied by Keller in the eighth minute.

Montero forced a save from D.C. goalkeeper Troy Perkins in the 15th minute and D.C.'s Stephen King forced Keller to turn his shot by the post in the 19th.

Najar found the side netting in the 32nd, then Zakuani and Moreno responded on the other end with chances that were both off target.

Seattle's Patrick Ianni turned a header over the crossbar early in the second, and Montero continued the trend of missing the target with a free kick around the right post in the 55th.

United's Chris Pontius followed with a shot wide left in the 59th but D.C. was gifted a chance to take the lead minutes later when Keller came out of his box to challenge Najar. Keller remained on the ground after the challenge, but his absence in goal was wasted by D.C.

Santino Quaranta fired a quick shot at the empty net but Ianni headed the ball off the line to prevent a goal. Keller, who finished the game with a limp, had another save in the 67th on new D.C. signing Pablo Hernandez.

Keller then tipped a long drive from Quaranta over the bar in the 76th and was up to the task again in the 87th when D.C.'s Branko Boskovic directed the ball on goal from close range.

Zakuani fired wide again in the 87th but Seattle found the game-winner seconds later through Levesque. Montero took the ball to the right edge of the box and crossed over Perkins to the far post, where Levesque lunged to head the ball just inside the left post.

Seattle will try to build on the win July 25 when it hosts the Colorado Rapids and D.C. will try to bounce back Sunday when the Los Angeles Galaxy visit.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

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What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

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Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

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“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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